Polysilicon and module prices remain deadlocked; midstream prices soften again

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotes have remained largely stable this week, with n-type recycled polysilicon at approximately RMB 40–43/kg and granular polysilicon at RMB 40–41/kg. Actual transactions remain relatively scattered. Downstream buyers have shown limited acceptance of higher-priced materials, while some traders have made small-volume purchases. Major downstream buyers remain cautious about procurement.

September polysilicon output is expected to reach around 120,000 MT, while upstream inventories continue to rise. The scale of production cuts remains undecided, with most producers awaiting the outcome of upcoming industry meetings.

Polysilicon price quotes remain broadly stable, but transaction volumes are subdued, and inventory pressure is rising as supply recovers. Relevant industry meetings have yet to produce a concrete implementation plan. Going forward, the market will continue to monitor actual implementation, downstream acceptance of current prices, and the pace of downstream restocking.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have declined further this week, with average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N falling to RMB 1.05/piece, RMB 1.05/piece, and RMB 1.15/piece, respectively. Transaction prices continue to soften, while acceptance of previous higher price levels has weakened.

Recently, demand for 183N wafers has weakened notably. Wafer demand associated with earlier cell stockpiling outside China is still being absorbed, with no near-term incremental demand. Some producers have also shifted furnaces to 210RN production, further easing the previously tight 183N supply-demand balance. As demand weakens, 183N prices have seen a relatively pronounced decline, with low-end transactions approaching RMB 1.00/piece. However, some tier-1 producers continue to hold firm on prices. Lower-priced transactions are currently concentrated among tier-2 and tier-3 producers.

On the supply-demand front, wafer output is expected to rise further in September, while end-market and cell demand have yet to show a meaningful pickup. Supply-demand pressure is therefore intensifying, and transactions at previously higher price levels are also expected to gradually recede. Some producers may accelerate inventory reduction through lower-priced sales at month-end, creating room for further near-term declines. However, stable polysilicon prices continue to support wafer prices. While the market is expected to remain weak, there is limited room for a sharp decline in the near term. Further attention should be paid to the pace of demand recovery and inventory digestion.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.295-0.31/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.305-0.32/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.29/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W

Wafer prices have declined further this week, reducing cell production costs, and cell prices have also begun to soften. Weak demand outside China, combined with pronounced inventory pressure for 183N cells, has driven a sharper decline in this format. Some tier-one cell producers in China are planning to cut production starting this month. The demand mix outside China has also temporarily shifted toward 210RN, allowing 210RN prices to remain stable this week. Meanwhile, 210N is primarily supplied to the Chinese market, with prices continuing to track production costs.

Following last week’s market dynamics, cell production plans for September are currently higher than in August. However, with overall demand remaining weak, market expectations for further price declines in September remain strong. Attention will turn to the scale and actual implementation of production cuts around mid-September, particularly for 183N cells. If production cuts can effectively reduce oversupply, producers may still be able to ease the downward pressure on prices.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained flat at USD 0.047/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.045-0.049/W. September demand for 182P cells outside China has recovered, partly driven by higher-priced customized orders, while supply remains relatively tight. Supported by current supply-demand conditions, downward price pressure from continued declines in wafer costs has yet to become evident, and the overall quote range remains stable.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has fallen further this week to USD 0.046/W, with prices ranging from USD 0.045–0.046/W. Consistent with last week’s market dynamics, stockpiling momentum outside China driven by the U.S. Section 232 measures has gradually weakened, while the scope for market premiums has also narrowed significantly. Recent market reports indicate rising inventories at warehouses outside China, signaling growing supply-demand pressure as the stockpiling wave fades. Near-term prices are likely to remain weak, while medium- to long-term stabilization will depend primarily on the production plans of cell producers in China and changes in supply and demand.
 

Module

Module prices remain stable this week, with no changes observed.

In China, actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.68–0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC modules, the average price in China has stayed at RMB 0.79/W this week. Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Outside China, the average TOPCon module price has remained at USD 0.114/W.

In the Middle East, regional conflict continues to disrupt shipments and cause logistics delays for most projects. Market transactions remain limited for now, and the latest prices have yet to become clear.

In Europe, prices remain stable this week. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S. market, the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise. For now, market participants remain in wait-and-see mode on U.S.-assembled module prices, which remain at around USD 0.30–0.33/W.

In India, prices for a small number of recent orders have also edged higher, mainly driven by advance stocking amid the impact of the U.S. Section 232 measures. Price increases have been more pronounced for projects not subject to the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), while changes for DCR projects have remained relatively limited, as demand is primarily driven by the domestic market.