Upstream and midstream prices hold steady, while European module prices weaken

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes remain largely stable this week. However, amid expectations of planned production cuts by manufacturers in October, some companies are considering raising their quotes. As of this week, n-type recycled polysilicon is quoted at around RMB 40–43/kg, with granular polysilicon at around RMB 40–41/kg. 

Actual transactions remain dominated by restocking for immediate needs among some manufacturers. Some downstream companies have also begun negotiations in advance amid concerns over potential further price increases. However, given that downstream companies still hold a certain level of polysilicon inventory, large-volume procurement has yet to begin. 

Production-cut plans among major leading producers remain unclear, and both the overall scale of the cuts and the details of their implementation may still change. Broadly speaking, however, the industry has settled on selling at no less than full cost as its main focus, and downstream acceptance of current prices and the pace of restocking will also be key factors determining whether transaction volumes can pick up going forward.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices show limited changes this week, largely holding at last week’s levels. Prices for 183N wafers generally remain at RMB 0.96–1.00/piece, with the mainstream average at RMB 1.00/piece and relatively limited price differentiation. Prices for 210RN remain at RMB 1.03–1.05/piece, with the mainstream average at RMB 1.05/piece. Prices for 210N range from RMB 1.08–1.20/piece, with mainstream transactions concentrated at RMB 1.10–1.15/piece.

With China’s National Day holiday approaching, most cell manufacturers have engaged in temporary restocking ahead of the holiday, further drawing down wafer inventories toward month-end. Recently, some wafer manufacturers have also begun considering price increases. Amid expectations that prices may rise, some cell manufacturers have shown stronger interest in inquiries and procurement. Looking ahead to October production schedules, companies continue to differ in their planned adjustments, with some planning to raise utilization rates. Whether wafer supply will therefore see a meaningful contraction remains to be seen.

As pre-holiday restocking gradually draws to a close, the pace of market transactions has slowed, while some wafer manufacturers have begun controlling shipments to support current price levels. In the near term, wafer prices still have some upside potential, but the actual extent of any increase will still hinge on whether cell demand can be sustained after the holiday and on actual supply-demand conditions in October. 

By format, 210N is expected to see relatively stronger demand support as projects in China gradually ramp up, giving it a more pronounced price upside outlook than other formats. Nevertheless, if demand fails to continue expanding after the holiday, the overall scope for a price rebound may remain limited.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.3/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W 

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.305–0.320/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.29/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W

In line with last week’s market dynamics, cell prices have shown no sharp fluctuations ahead of China’s National Day holiday. As previously expected, 183N prices have held steady as cell manufacturers are expected to implement large-scale production cuts in October. Although 210RN prices remain temporarily flat this week, demand in some markets outside China is expected to weaken in October following the announcement of anti-stockpiling provisions under the U.S. Section 232 measures, which may lead to price adjustments. Meanwhile, 210N cell prices continue to receive support from improving ground-mounted PV demand in China. Most manufacturers have raised their quote levels to RMB 0.290–0.295/W, although the overall average price has yet to fully reach RMB 0.295/W amid ongoing price negotiations.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained flat at USD 0.047/W this week, with the price range remaining at USD 0.047–0.050/W. Procurement demand outside China for 182P cells remains moderate in October. With supply from manufacturers in China having declined significantly, market supply and demand remain relatively stable, and the overall quote range remains unchanged.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.046/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.045–0.046/W. As noted last week, production cuts by cell manufacturers in China have indeed provided support for near-term prices. However, as previously discussed, procurement in some markets outside China has largely paused following the anti-stockpiling provisions under the Section 232 measures, and stockpiling demand ahead of year-end implementation has been largely exhausted. In October, close attention should be paid to 183N inventories outside China, as low-priced sell-offs could put pressure on overall market prices.
 

Module

Ahead of China’s National Day holiday, module prices remain stable this week, with no changes observed.

In China, actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.68–0.76/W for distributed projects.

Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Outside China, the average TOPCon module price has remained at USD 0.114/W.

In the Middle East, regional conflict continues to disrupt shipments and cause logistics delays for most projects. Market transactions remain limited for now, and the latest prices have yet to become clear.

In Europe, module prices have gradually softened in recent weeks as China’s recent energy-efficiency policy has prompted companies to clear inventories of lower-efficiency modules by shipping them outside China, while demand in Europe has remained weak this year. For euro-denominated module prices in the European spot market, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S., the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise. 

In India, prices for a small number of recent orders have also edged higher, mainly driven by advance stocking amid the impact of the U.S. Section 232 measures. Price increases have been more pronounced for projects not subject to the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), while changes for DCR projects have remained relatively limited, as demand is primarily driven by the domestic market.